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"Without the MSD project I think [South Fairmount] stays about the same, as it is now. I don’t see there being any real impetus for new investment."
-Liz Blume, Director of Community Building Institute / Director of Urban Sustainability Graduate Program at Xavier University.
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QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS...
Q: What challenges do you see with the Lick-Run Project? Acceptances, tourism, etc (Start/22)
It’s going to be interesting to see how the green space really develops, and how much water is the channel on a regular basis. “I think we don’t know, it’s a flood conveyance, and so there is going to be times when there is a lot of water in channel and there is going to be times when there is not very much water in the channel”
I think when those times come what the green space looks like around it is going to have a lot to do with how much of an attraction it is. I think the intent is its going to an attraction all the time, green space is a good thing,…but how much of a tourist attraction it is and how much how much additional activity it simulates I think remains to be seen.
I think installing Lick-Run doesn’t fundamentally change the market dynamics in the neighborhood. I think it’s going to take more infrastructure project to fundamentally change the market dynamics which generates more housing, generates more retail activity and creates the uses around Lick-Run that makes it a livelier place. So I think the jury is still out on some of that and we will have to see how that goes. I think it’s a good thing, I think it’s a great thing. I think that the expectation the flood conveyance project is going to create economic development and community development is probably a little bit of an over-reach.
Q: How is a project like this going to impact issues like crime?
The story goes that an improvement like this, a big green space, will simulate the housing market and simulate economic activity and encourage people to invest additional dollars in neighborhood around updating housing, upgrading retail, upgrading commercial. (Start/3:20) I think that is possible but that’s not going to happen by itself, I think there is going to have to be other more deliberate acts to get that to happen (End/3:33).
The choice neighborhood plan talks about some places where there could be additional investment beyond the infrastructure project, that would support the infrastructure project but that would have a more direct impact on the housing market or retail market.
Q: How do you perceive the dismantling of historical buildings in lieu of this project?
I think that MSD made an offer earlier on when they realized what buildings were going to be impacted to try and mitigate that by either moving the flood channel or trying to relocate buildings…I don’t think they ever had enough money to relocate buildings in whole, so they sort of made an offer to others who might want to relocate buildings. The problem with that is back to the economy. What’s the economic value of that if I spend a gazillion…a bunch of money to relocate a building, that has very little economic value and then I have renovate the building in a new spot. That is probably not an economically feasible idea, not that buildings aren’t significant and have historic value, because they certainly do…but I think the economics of the proposition were just difficult from the beginning.
Q: Often times people view projects in impoverished areas as a sign of gentrification. Do you believe that’s a case with the MSD Project or something wew should actually worry about at this moment?
I don’t know that people talked about gentrification. Whenever there is an issue of…so whenever you try to stimulate a housing market that has declined and people living in that place has paid a relatively low rent or relatively property mortgage rate, and if I’m trying to stimulate that market and get those rates up again…as a matter of course I am trying to attract people who can pay more rent or pay more up higher mortgage rates.
So I don’t think that adding middle income people to a community necessarily creates gentrification, particularly in a neighborhood like this where there is so much vacancy and so much disinvestment…but I think there comes a point in every neighborhood where the market dynamics are changing, when you have to pay attention to that and you have to stay that there’s a group of folks that are here and stay here and they have to be protected. They have to be protected from a market-economics standpoint, and there are lots of tools to do that but that too doesn’t happen magically by the market. The market doesn’t do that, you have to intentionally do it by creating low income tax credit projects. In Over-the-Rhine, it’s done in ways where Over-the-Rhine housing partners has got and protecting units at affordable rates, the low income tax credits are protecting units at a affordable rate, you have to do it intentionally….
...but I think we are way far away from that in South Fairmount. Lots of new people would be a good thing; there is plenty of room in South Fairmount right now.
Q: Where do you see South Fairmount going economically, commercially speaking 5-10 years from now, with the MSD Project and without it?
Without the MSD project I think stays about the same, as it is now. I don’t see there being any real impetus for new investment. So I think having said that in some ways we’ve over-reached with the MSD Project and what are expectations are and what it does to the market. At the same time, I think if it’s not there nothing happens, because there is no reason for people to pay attention to that neighborhood. I think with the MSD project, that clearly is a major public investment that has people asking the question at least “how can we maximize this investment, how can we turn this into community economic development impact”?
So I think that its presence is getting people to pay attention and think about and ask the question, I don’t think that happens by itself. I think that if there are additional investments made by CMHA, additional income tax credit projects, if there are some strategic investments that gets made in that way, then I think maybe in 5 years the market value start to stabilize and start to go up. For people who are interested there are some amazing deals with some great lots and lots of green spaces with all kinds of hillsides, if you’re interested. It’s likely the market starts to stabilize and maybe starts to rise.
I don’t think in 5 years and I don’t think in even 10 years this is a hot gentrifying market. I think it might be a stable attractive lower income/middle income neighborhood, that people who home value with a lot of green space will be attracted to..that’s my hope.
Q: Do you have anything else you would like to add?
I will say one other thing because this is market dynamics as well. St. Leo’s is the parish the parish in North Fairmount, but really serves both North and South Fairmount and they have over the years have really become a hub of immigrant populations in Cincinnati. There is a Burendi population and a Gutamulean population that are both being attracted to St. Leo’s and I think both of those immigrant populations have a desire to be in this neighborhood. I think some of this re-population in north Fairmount in particular, but in also in South Fairmount maybe coming from this growing immigrant population and I think this will great. I think that will be a really good thing for this neighborhood as well. So part of what we are doing in the planning process is trying to stimulate that growth as well.
It’s going to be interesting to see how the green space really develops, and how much water is the channel on a regular basis. “I think we don’t know, it’s a flood conveyance, and so there is going to be times when there is a lot of water in channel and there is going to be times when there is not very much water in the channel”
I think when those times come what the green space looks like around it is going to have a lot to do with how much of an attraction it is. I think the intent is its going to an attraction all the time, green space is a good thing,…but how much of a tourist attraction it is and how much how much additional activity it simulates I think remains to be seen.
I think installing Lick-Run doesn’t fundamentally change the market dynamics in the neighborhood. I think it’s going to take more infrastructure project to fundamentally change the market dynamics which generates more housing, generates more retail activity and creates the uses around Lick-Run that makes it a livelier place. So I think the jury is still out on some of that and we will have to see how that goes. I think it’s a good thing, I think it’s a great thing. I think that the expectation the flood conveyance project is going to create economic development and community development is probably a little bit of an over-reach.
Q: How is a project like this going to impact issues like crime?
The story goes that an improvement like this, a big green space, will simulate the housing market and simulate economic activity and encourage people to invest additional dollars in neighborhood around updating housing, upgrading retail, upgrading commercial. (Start/3:20) I think that is possible but that’s not going to happen by itself, I think there is going to have to be other more deliberate acts to get that to happen (End/3:33).
The choice neighborhood plan talks about some places where there could be additional investment beyond the infrastructure project, that would support the infrastructure project but that would have a more direct impact on the housing market or retail market.
Q: How do you perceive the dismantling of historical buildings in lieu of this project?
I think that MSD made an offer earlier on when they realized what buildings were going to be impacted to try and mitigate that by either moving the flood channel or trying to relocate buildings…I don’t think they ever had enough money to relocate buildings in whole, so they sort of made an offer to others who might want to relocate buildings. The problem with that is back to the economy. What’s the economic value of that if I spend a gazillion…a bunch of money to relocate a building, that has very little economic value and then I have renovate the building in a new spot. That is probably not an economically feasible idea, not that buildings aren’t significant and have historic value, because they certainly do…but I think the economics of the proposition were just difficult from the beginning.
Q: Often times people view projects in impoverished areas as a sign of gentrification. Do you believe that’s a case with the MSD Project or something wew should actually worry about at this moment?
I don’t know that people talked about gentrification. Whenever there is an issue of…so whenever you try to stimulate a housing market that has declined and people living in that place has paid a relatively low rent or relatively property mortgage rate, and if I’m trying to stimulate that market and get those rates up again…as a matter of course I am trying to attract people who can pay more rent or pay more up higher mortgage rates.
So I don’t think that adding middle income people to a community necessarily creates gentrification, particularly in a neighborhood like this where there is so much vacancy and so much disinvestment…but I think there comes a point in every neighborhood where the market dynamics are changing, when you have to pay attention to that and you have to stay that there’s a group of folks that are here and stay here and they have to be protected. They have to be protected from a market-economics standpoint, and there are lots of tools to do that but that too doesn’t happen magically by the market. The market doesn’t do that, you have to intentionally do it by creating low income tax credit projects. In Over-the-Rhine, it’s done in ways where Over-the-Rhine housing partners has got and protecting units at affordable rates, the low income tax credits are protecting units at a affordable rate, you have to do it intentionally….
...but I think we are way far away from that in South Fairmount. Lots of new people would be a good thing; there is plenty of room in South Fairmount right now.
Q: Where do you see South Fairmount going economically, commercially speaking 5-10 years from now, with the MSD Project and without it?
Without the MSD project I think stays about the same, as it is now. I don’t see there being any real impetus for new investment. So I think having said that in some ways we’ve over-reached with the MSD Project and what are expectations are and what it does to the market. At the same time, I think if it’s not there nothing happens, because there is no reason for people to pay attention to that neighborhood. I think with the MSD project, that clearly is a major public investment that has people asking the question at least “how can we maximize this investment, how can we turn this into community economic development impact”?
So I think that its presence is getting people to pay attention and think about and ask the question, I don’t think that happens by itself. I think that if there are additional investments made by CMHA, additional income tax credit projects, if there are some strategic investments that gets made in that way, then I think maybe in 5 years the market value start to stabilize and start to go up. For people who are interested there are some amazing deals with some great lots and lots of green spaces with all kinds of hillsides, if you’re interested. It’s likely the market starts to stabilize and maybe starts to rise.
I don’t think in 5 years and I don’t think in even 10 years this is a hot gentrifying market. I think it might be a stable attractive lower income/middle income neighborhood, that people who home value with a lot of green space will be attracted to..that’s my hope.
Q: Do you have anything else you would like to add?
I will say one other thing because this is market dynamics as well. St. Leo’s is the parish the parish in North Fairmount, but really serves both North and South Fairmount and they have over the years have really become a hub of immigrant populations in Cincinnati. There is a Burendi population and a Gutamulean population that are both being attracted to St. Leo’s and I think both of those immigrant populations have a desire to be in this neighborhood. I think some of this re-population in north Fairmount in particular, but in also in South Fairmount maybe coming from this growing immigrant population and I think this will great. I think that will be a really good thing for this neighborhood as well. So part of what we are doing in the planning process is trying to stimulate that growth as well.